Comparative analysis of the (mis)constitutional approach to electoral demoscopy by the CIS (2018-2026)

Abstract

The present work analyzes the constitutional fit of the Sociological Research Center and its autonomous counterparts within the framework of the social and democratic State of Law configured by the Spanish Constitution. From the examination of the principles of objectivity (art. 103 CE), administrative prohibition of arbitrariness (art. 9.3 CE) and political pluralism (art. 1.1 CE), we study whether the institutional design adequately guarantees functional independence and neutrality in the production of investigations, especially in electoral contexts. The article addresses the doctrinal debate that arose in the last decade in the government direction of the CIS, the possible conflict of interests and the influence of the probes in the formation of public opinion. Also, analyze the expansion of sociological centers in the autonomous communities and evaluate their organizational structure, control mechanisms and empirical precision in electoral estimates. From the comparative methodology, we contrast international models of statistical and Democratic independence, identifying good institutional practices. Finally, this formulation proposes to be aimed at reforming the legal status of the CIS, improving its designation and control mechanisms, and consolidating its democratic legitimacy. The study concludes that, although the current model is formally compatible with the constitutional framework, it is necessary to strengthen structural guarantees to preserve civic confidence and ensure full compliance with contemporary democratic standards.